A paper that tried to estimate the cost of invasive species to farming in Africa has been corrected because the researchers made a pair of errors that dramatically inflated their calculations.
One mistake led the group, from Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Ghana and Kenya, to overstate the cost to African agricultural of invasive vegetation by roughly $3 trillion — yes, that’s trillion with a T. The second error pared their estimate for crop losses due to a single plant species from $11.4 billion to $4.1 billion.
Now, we’re not suggesting that the corrections negate the overall importance of the research. But we do wonder how errors of this magnitude weren’t immediately obvious to not only the peer reviewers and editors of the article, but to the researchers themselves. After all, the gross domestic product of the entire continent of Africa was an estimated $2.6 trillion in 2019.
The journal, CABI Agriculture and Bioscience — the official journal of CABI, a global nonprofit group focused on agriculture and the environment — has both a brief correction and a more detailed notice for the May 2021 paper, “Towards estimating the economic cost of invasive alien species to African crop and livestock production”. The short version reads:
Continue reading Authors crop estimate that was off by a factor of 60 — or $3 trillion